UNCERTAINTY AND CERTAINTY

Nature is never uncertain.  By the time someone has become aware of an event, it has already occurred.  Whether at the level of distant galaxies or of infinitesimal electronic impulses, man’s observations of natural phenomena do not change their outcomes.  In advance, a high amount of uncertainty may prevail regarding how a given set of occurrences will turn out, but the lack of certainty is all on the part of the individuals doing the forecasting, not on the part of the phenomena.  On Earth, in the solar system, or, at the other extreme, in the world of subatomic particles and electronic transmissions, events proceed according to patterns that have been predetermined by billions of years of physical changes occurring within our universe.  Man is able to predict certain ongoing outcomes with varying degrees of certainty, but much that happens here, or millions of miles from here, remains cloaked in significant uncertainty.

In an effort to gain some control over streams of natural occurrences, mathematicians and statisticians have dedicated considerable effort to identifying probabilities and establishing trends.  If the future becomes predictable, it becomes manageable. Repetitious events develop patterns such that, if the future is assumed to continuously repeat the past, reasonably reliable forecasts can be made.  This holds true with respect to the weather, the economy, or human behavior.  But in fact, events never repeat themselves exactly.  Predictions based on trend analysis often prove to be correct until, when the underlying factors change, they prove to be wrong.

Many natural phenomena, as well as manifestations of human behavior, display distributions that form bell-shaped curves.  An example of this would be the correlation between good behavior and justifiable rewards.  People who work hard all their lives and are considerate of others often achieve success and are relatively happy.  Others, who are lazy or cruel, or who decide that criminal behavior is a desirable way to accomplish their goals, frequently end up unhappy and chastised or punished by their fellow humans.  Yet, there are always those who are paragons of virtue, but at the end of their lives find themselves impoverished or deprived of the respect or approbation they feel they deserve, while others who have engaged in actions that have inflicted serious damage on their fellow citizens  nevertheless secure wealth or high approval before they die.  Trend analyses, pattern recognition, development of statistical tables all provide some insight into the likelihood of future occurrences taking place, whether of natural or human origin, but none of these are infallible predictors of the future.