CYCLES AND TRENDS

Our lives are dominated by trends.  All aspects of existence are subject to the effects of short run cycles.  In the short term, spring provides a renewal of life, followed by the warmth of summer, the harvests of autumn, and the darkness of winter.  Inevitably, the snows melt, the ice thaws, and nature starts its life-cycle all over again.

Yet no cycle exactly repeats itself.  Sometimes the winters are longer and colder while during other years there are far fewer frigid days.  Spring weather can be mild and pleasant some years, but at other times early buds are killed by prolonged freezing spells.  Summer can bring mild rain showers, frequent thunder storms, or very little rain.  In the fall, mild and beautiful days can be marred by hurricanes in the east and wind-driven fires in the west.

Through the years, the overall weather patterns can become wetter or dryer, colder or warmer.  Such long term trends have significantly impacted the development and migrations of civilizations.  Lack of water contributed to the disappearance of ancient Indian tribes in the Southwest as well as the abandonment of cities by the Maya of Mexico and Central America.  During the latter part of the 19th century, a period of prolonged cold weather seemed to be the harbinger of a new ice age.  In current times, increasingly warmer temperatures are suggesting just the opposite.

In human affairs, periods of war have been followed by relatively peaceful times; eras of plenty have led to periods of scarcity.  Great civilizations rose and fell; empires developed slowly, flourished, and eventually declined.  During times of economic surplus, magnificent edifices were constructed as wealthy societies prospered; when things get tough, the emphasis changed to one of survival and capital built up in the past was consumed to sustain the lives of the country’s inhabitants.

Throughout all of these ebbs and flows, longer ranging changes are in evidence.  People live longer today.  In developed societies, a higher level of affluence prevails than was present in earlier centuries.  Despite pervasive beliefs in supernatural entities, scientific thinking has produced drastic modifications in the way individuals and families lead their every-day lives.  At the same time, our modern era is depleting natural resources at ever more voracious rates.  This will eventually force mankind, if it is going to preserve itself in the long run, to completely rethink how it produces and distributes the basic necessities of food, clothing, and shelter.